Alright, this thread is getting too interesting to confine to the comments section of another thread. Both of you (Greg and Matt) are actually ready to call this election as a 1980-style runaway in favor of McCain! That is absolutely staggering to me.
Now don't hear me wrong. I am also somewhat perplexed by Obama's failure to run a convention that generates some momentum in the polls. But part of me wonders whether that failure is more due to the fact that this party was still divided over the primary campaign. Moreover, Obama has yet to take the stage (not including the "preview" he offered last night). So I think its too early to say that there will be no bump in momentum because the early days have been taken up largely dealing with intra-party squabbling.
Lastly -- and I say this with a growing sense of fervency -- McCain is just lame. For a man who built his career on being an "independent" who can "cross aisles," he sure does spend an awful lot of time backtracking and just giving prickly interviews in which he can't even admit stylistic changes. So I am not even remotely confident that he can hold it together through the end of a general election.
Which leaves me with this thought: will this potentially be our weakest President post-Nixon? I know the knee-jerk response is to go with Bush, but to be honest, there is still a piece of me that respects the guy. He reminds me in a certain way of Winston Churchill. Churchill fought all sorts of political battles at home and he was hated by many in England. But he knew the cause and he had an unbreakable iron will. In some ways, I think Bush is the same. No matter how low his approval ratings go, he does not bend on the war. And I think that's critical if there is to be any hope of leaving that country in any semblance of shape when we finally do pull out.
Now don't hear me wrong. I am also somewhat perplexed by Obama's failure to run a convention that generates some momentum in the polls. But part of me wonders whether that failure is more due to the fact that this party was still divided over the primary campaign. Moreover, Obama has yet to take the stage (not including the "preview" he offered last night). So I think its too early to say that there will be no bump in momentum because the early days have been taken up largely dealing with intra-party squabbling.
Lastly -- and I say this with a growing sense of fervency -- McCain is just lame. For a man who built his career on being an "independent" who can "cross aisles," he sure does spend an awful lot of time backtracking and just giving prickly interviews in which he can't even admit stylistic changes. So I am not even remotely confident that he can hold it together through the end of a general election.
Which leaves me with this thought: will this potentially be our weakest President post-Nixon? I know the knee-jerk response is to go with Bush, but to be honest, there is still a piece of me that respects the guy. He reminds me in a certain way of Winston Churchill. Churchill fought all sorts of political battles at home and he was hated by many in England. But he knew the cause and he had an unbreakable iron will. In some ways, I think Bush is the same. No matter how low his approval ratings go, he does not bend on the war. And I think that's critical if there is to be any hope of leaving that country in any semblance of shape when we finally do pull out.
posted by Just a Few Things about Scott ... | 8:29 AM
5 Comments:
McCain is indeed lame. Mine will definitely be a vote AGAINST Obama. (Well, actually, let's wait and see who his veep is...)
Just to add another angle, I wonder the extent to which the polls are skewed by the Bradley effect.
I'm not saying that this is a direct correlation to 1980; I'm saying that there are similarities, and the results will be the same.
Carter's administration is arguably the worst, most inept presidency. Ever. Even the liberal media concocted the "misery index". The only battle Carter won was against a pissed of rabbit in a pond. He lost stateside economics (inflation, interest rates, negative growth, etc) and his administration is associated with the birth of state sponsored terror (i.e., Iran).
In many ways, the 1980 election was a referendum against Carter as it was toward the elegant speaking skills of Reagan.
At this point, McCain is likely laying low on purpose. He's letting his most merciful O self-destruct.
And again--the national polls, which care not of intra-party disunity on either side of the isle, is showing a McCain lead. Months ahead of the GE. During the DNC Convention. Historically, the liberal media gives their guy a boost in the early polls to have the RNC candidate catch up just weeks before the election. If his most merciful is already behind (with the liberal media's head-start), the election will not be close. It's just not.
Yes, the dems are still quite fractured due to Billary and the O, but the RNC isn't unified either. Zero sum gain on that one.
And to suggest that his most merciful has "yet to take the stage" is patently false. He's been on the cover of time something like 7 times this year. His absurd "semester abroad" this summer had an inexplicable amount of media coverage. The media is doing their best to pump this guy up, while trying to conceal his obvious short comings. (Rev Write, Resco, his terrorist-friend, ever hear his most merciful when he's off script? He avoids and interjects worse than a stutterer!)
The DNC split is because a large group of those w/in the DNC see that he's a failure as a candidate, and they're trying to let common sense prevail. The guy's got no chance.
Yes--McCain is lame. But when compared with someone with 153 days of experience, he'll look like a freakin' genius.
Hey Matt--do you think the VEEP pick is really that important? Do people actually vote for VEEPS? Being the #2 administrator person here at the U, it's really a thankless and powerless job... Don't know if the VP position really is all that influential in real life. (sans death of the P)
Scott--Did the 1976 - 1980 years mean nothing to you? Carter is, by far, the weakest president of our lifetime. If not ever.
Greg,
I do think that, for one thing, veep choice can actually pull (or push) the mythical "undecided voter" to no longer be so. It's not a huge deal, but I don't think you could say that the effects are negligible, especially in a close race (which most people think this is ;-) )
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