Alright kiddos. You've waited long enough. My predictions ...
On the Democratic side (and this is key to understanding my thoughts on the Repub side), we're looking at either Hillary or Obama. And frankly, that boggles the mind. How can you seriously say that a woman with a 50% disapproval rating might actually get the nomination? But on the other hand, you're looking at Obama, and we're seriously thinking about handing the reigns over to a freshman
junior Senator. But what else do the Dems have? Edwards? Not buying it for one moment. So the Dems come down to either Obama or Hillary, which means the Dems have the option of electing either their first woman or their first black President.
So, is the US ready to vote for a woman or a black man? Honestly, I don't think they are. I'm not saying that this is either right or wrong. I'm simply saying that I honestly don't believe that voters will collectively choose to put a woman or a black into office unless the Republicans put up a hard-right candidate.
And that is one reason why I don't believe that Thompson has a shot. He appears to be the only genuine conservative in the bunch; and for that very reason, I'm thinking that he won't get the nomination. Think about it. The Repubs just handed the Congress over to the Dems on the perceived weakness of this Administration. So they
can't hand over the Presidency or they loose the whole kit and kaboodle.
That's why I think Huckabee and Thompson are dead. Huckabee is too morally conservative and too polarizing, while Thompson is a true conservative. So that leaves me with Rommey, McCain and Guliani as my options. Now Rommney is a Mormon, and there's no way that he is going to fly in the Bible Belt. So I'm down to McCain and Guiliani. McCain is a "moderate" in many ways, while Guiliani is "America's Mayor" (if you buy the press). In the end, I think Guiliani is a one-trick pony and I think that his schtick will get old. So I'm going with McCain winning the nomination on the strength of (1) war hero status, (2) perception as a "moderate" (while maintaining certain key "moral" voting patterns), and (3) unelectability of the other canddiates.
P.S. Is there still a possibility that a longshot like Blomburg out of New York might enter? I think there might be, but that's really spitballing.